The Jacqui Lambie Network will go the same way as other eponymous political organisations, such as Paul Hanson’s One Nation. Confirmation came with the announcement the JLN trio had signed an agreement on 10 April with Premier Rockliff which displayed the trio’s self-confessed inexperience and naivety. Senator Lambie has said she will mentor and guide the new MPs. If this is an example of mentoring and guiding, it doesn’t instil confidence in her and damages her reputation. Not only will her mentees struggle to be re-elected, she could struggle also.

The agreement seems to make the JLN members Liberal members in all but name. Rockliff promised offices, additional staff, and action on a range of accountability issues, all of which would happen anyway. He got everything he wanted and the JLN got nothing, despite having all the bargaining power. The Premier kept his word that he would do no deals; a deal involves a trade and there was none here. 

The seven percent of voters who elected former UK Conservative party mayor Andrew Jenner (Lyons), pharmaceutical product salesperson Rebekah Pentland (Bass) and small businesswoman Miriam Beswick (Braddon) voted for change but given their agreement performance it’s unlikely they’ll get it. Jenner told the media on 8 April they were not “career politicians” and were “new at this, still wet behind the ears”. Asked what policies they wanted implemented to make the most of their balance of power, Pentland said: “… it’s about integrity and transparency. So I think, you know, we’re going to try and work with the Liberals to bring about more transparency and more integrity”. They had the opportunity when negotiating the agreement but failed. Having shown their ineffectiveness at the first hurdle, it doesn’t bode well for the future. But maybe that’s the intention.

Political commentator Guy Rundle, writing in Crikey.com.au, suggests the JLN’s passiveness is a ploy to placate the Liberals so it will preference Senator Lambie at the next Senate election. He writes Lambie relies on Liberal preferences to be elected to the Senate, as she did for her (now-expelled from the JLN) co-Senator Tammy Tyrrell. He says a Lambie candidate at the 2018 election could’ve won a seat in Braddon but didn’t because of an incompetently-managed campaign or a deliberate ploy not to win.

New independent member from Franklin and former Labor leader, David O’Byrne, is well versed in political strategy, having worked all his life in the trade union movement and parliament. He has signed a letter in which he promises to support the government on Supply and votes of confidence unless corruption or other wrongdoing is involved.

Clark independent Kristie Johnston, and Braddon independent Craig Garland haven’t signed anything and they, along with O’Byrne, haven’t signed their independence away.

Rockliff is right when he says Tasmania is about to enter a new era. If goodwill prevails on all sides, the parliament will not be dominated by the executive and work as intended: a debating chamber that makes decisions. The government losing a vote – unless it is a money bill or motion of no-confidence – is not a disaster that spells the end of the government, although the media are likely to portray it that way.

The election result can be interpreted in two ways: the Liberal Party won the most seats, – 14, or 37% of the vote – and had the strongest claim to government. Another interpretation is that 63% of people did not vote for the Liberal Party, therefore did not want a Liberal government. The Labor Party (29%) and the Greens’ (14%) had a total of 43%, and if we add the votes for Labor-leaning independents, David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston, the percentage would be even higher.

There is an argument that the Labor Party, by refusing to participate in negotiations, disenfranchised its voters and let democracy down. Labor’s strategy mirrors that of the Liberals’ in 2010 – sit out this term and hope to win a majority government at the next election. Labor will have to win another eight seats – almost double what it has now. It’s a tall order for a party that hasn’t won more than 35 percent of the vote since 2010. Dean Winter, the new Labor leader, is banking on a back to the future, Eric Reece-type, pro-worker, pro-industry position. It might not be enough to get his party into government.